SpiffX – Punters confused by Liverpool’s early season form

With Liverpool FC facing Premier League champions Leicester City this Saturday (17:30 UK Time). Spiffx the alternative betting exchange analyses The Kop’s perplexing early season form, beating title contenders Arsenal but losing to EPL newcomers Burnley FC…

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One team we have yet to focus on this season is Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. The team’s form has been a mixed bag and this is very much backed up by the data on the betting patterns to date. For the opener, which Liverpool won thrillingly 4-3, the punters were very much split with Arsenal the marginal favourite with 45% of all bets on the Gunners winning.

Perhaps surprisingly a Liverpool win was the choice of only 33% of punters for the Burnley match-up the next week, although the 54% that plumped for Burnley were proved correct as the team cantered to a 2-0 victory. Despite the slip-up, Klopp’s team were seen as being the likeliest winners of the away game at Tottenham Hotspur by 55% of punters, a faith that turned out to be misplaced as the game ended 1-1. As was typical, the draw the least favoured result in this game, but only by a slim margin, at 21% compared with only 22% who though Tottenham would bring home the spoils on home turf.

As to this week’s game with Leicester City, we see the typical pattern from last year. Leicester were unfancied in the first tie-up in December at Anfield where only 8% thought the away team could bring anything away (and they were right – Leicester lost 1-0) whereas in the February game nearly 30% backed Leicester at home. Liverpool were still favoured to win by more punters (32% of all bets), but to no avail – they lost 2-0.

The Manchester derby is garnering attention well beyond the confines of Greater Manchester, or indeed, just England. The global nature of the Premier League is perhaps best expressed by the fixture, pitching long-term managerial rivals Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola against each other for the first time on English soil.

The meetings last season were inconclusive. The October fixture ended in stalemate while United edged the late March match-up 1-0, and the data from the betting patterns likewise produced a mixed picture. While 78% of the betting was on Man City in the first tie-up – reflecting, no doubt, the pessimism surrounding the early season form of the Van Gaal-led United – the sentiment was reversed for the fixture at the Etihad where United were the bet of 80% of punters.

It will be intriguing to see where the gamblers fall this week and we will report on the betting patterns in next week’s article.

Man Utd v Man City 25th October 2015

• Draw – 2.99%
• Man City – 77.61%
• Man Utd – 19.40%

Man City v Man Utd 20th March 2016

• Draw – 1.45%
• Man City – 18.84%
• Man Utd – 79.71%

Liverpool v Leicester 26th December 2015

• Draw – 3.77%
• Leicester – 8.18%
• Liverpool – 88.05%

Leicester v Liverpool 2nd February 2016

• Draw – 37.60%
• Leicester – 29.75%
• Liverpool – 32.65%

All Liverpool matches of this season

Arsenal v Liverpool 14th August 2016 497

• Arsenal – 45.67%
• Draw – 16.10%
• Liverpool – 38.23%

Burnley v Liverpol 20th August 2016 386

• Burnley – 54.40%
• Draw – 11.92%
• Liverpool 33.68%

Tottenham v Liverpool 27th August 2016 702

• Draw – 21.37%
• Liverpool – 56.70%
• Tottenham – 21.93%