April 14, HUGE day for Crypto as Coinbase direct listing is just hours away
Today is a huge day for Crypto. Coinbase, the top cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, will launch its COIN stock on the Nasdaq.
Sentiment around the listing have been overwhelmingly positive from both the crypto and traditional financial markets. What can we expect? And will Coinbase’s COIN yield twentyfold returns just like Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital did?
Analysts have been looking ahead in the past days to the event that is now only a few hours away.
COIN, “go get it”
Despite the lack of involvement of investment banks in the process of listing Coinbase, there is a significant hype around COIN. By directly listing its shares on the Nasdaq these investment banks are bypassed.
On April 12 JimCramer said on CNBC’s Squawk Box::
“You gotta buy Coinbase when that deal comes. Even though it’s a $100 billion deal, this has become common knowledge that there are many companies that are going to switch. MicroStrategy has always been the leader, so others would want to follow.”
“You got to buy $COIN when that deal comes,” says @JimCramer. “This is a $2T market maybe going to $3T.”#btc #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/ItLMx1tbIl
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) April 12, 2021
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Why COIN?
Investors in the traditional financial markets are positive about COIN. And they are for numerous reasons.
What stand out are basically two factors. One is the possibility to get indirect exposure to the crypto market without owning cryptocurrencies. The other is the highly lucrative business model of Coinbase.
Co-founder of Jarvis Labs, Ben Lilly, said the following:
“Coinbase is the watershed moment in terms of legitimizing some valuations you see in crypto, particularly around DEXs who have a tiny fraction of the amount of employees and opex [operating expenses] that a Coinbase or ICE has. Crypto is an asset with incredible volume and diversity, which is poised to grow even more. Coinbase showcases how profitable exposure to this market can be. Also, I expect a wave of M&A and VC activity on the heels of this as private investors will be asking their fund managers for exposure to this space.”
Lilly then commented on the significance of COIN’s listing, calling it a “bridge”:
“You always need that bridge. How legacy markets value a company that operates in crypto is that bridge. Now legacy investors can walk across the bridge and realize it’s an untapped ocean of investable assets. They might not invest right away, but their framework for how to value something gets easier.”
COIN’s massive potential
John Street Capital analyst referred to Coinbase’s huge profitability with annual revenues exceeding $1.8 billion.
On top of that, the user base of Coinbase is much larger than big U.S. players Cash App and Venmo. Moreover, Coinbase actually has the biggest user base out of all the financial institutions in the U.S, with the exception of JPMorgan Chase. In a couple of tweets on April 6, the analyst commented on this massive potential:
0/ The @coinbase team announced 1Q21 data including revenue of ~$1.8B, adj EBITDA of $1.1B, NI of $730-$800M, trading volume of $335B & assets on the platform of $223B (11.3% of cryptoasset market) with 56M users
Run-rate of $7.2B in revenue / $4.4B in EBITDA / $3.0B of NI. pic.twitter.com/1tGpNsIBFv
— John Street Capital (@JohnStCapital) April 6, 2021
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3/ The fact that $COIN may do more revenue / EBITDA than $ICE $CME $NDAQ & $CBOE this year helps give credence to their argument that they can be the “exchange” destination even as the asset class is institutionalized (you won’t see Bakkt reporting these #s).
— John Street Capital (@JohnStCapital) April 6, 2021
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There are just a few who believe crypto will reach a top after the Coinbase listing. The majority though are sure that this is only just the beginning.
Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, expects the direct listing to boost Bitcoin to $70,000:
#Coinbase IPO May Boost #Bitcoin to $70,000, Like #Tesla to $60,000 –
The lowest 30-day volatility since October indicates Bitcoin is ripe to exit its cage and bull-market continuation is favored for the next $10,000 move. Similar to Tesla’s equity-wealth allocation to Bitcoin.. pic.twitter.com/DGZlJAZwWu— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) April 13, 2021
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COIN stock has received a reference price at $250 from Nasdaq. The Nasdaq did however state the reference price does not reflect the opening price. The price was established after consultation of Coinbase’s financial advisors. Estimated valuations have been made anywhere between $70 and $120 million for the roughly 114.9 million shares.
Anthony Pompliano made sure to share his thoughts on the reference price of $250. By the sounds of it he is expecting some serious ground-shaking and -breaking to happen.
Coinbase at $250/share means it is valued at less than 10x Q1 annualized revenue.
Wall Street is about to see what crypto degens can do to something they want to own
— Pomp (@APompliano) April 14, 2021
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Let’s get ready to rumble.
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Source: igaming